SunEdison, Adani to invest $4 billion in Indian solar panel plant

By Justin Doom 
Originally posted in Bloomberg

SunEdison Inc. (SUNE) will invest $4 billion to build the biggest solar panel factory in India, advancing Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s effort to rein in pollution by expanding renewable energy.

The manufacturer based in Maryland Heights, Missouri, will form a venture with the Indian power provider Adani Enterprises Ltd. (ADE) to build the photovoltaic plant, with as much as 7.5 gigawatts of annual production capacity. Construction is expected to begin this year, the company said in a statement today.

With some of the quickest-growing carbon dioxide emissions in the developing world, India is under pressure to join in the international fight against global warming. Modi will meet President Barack Obama  in New Delhi next week where the two are expected to discuss climate issues following last year’s pact between the U.S. and China  to coordinate pollution cuts.

“The prime minister has been revising upwards India’s aspirations for solar,” said Pashupathy Shankar Gopalan, SunEdison’s managing director for South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. The factory “very nicely plays into the aspirations for the country to grow solar significantly, as well as wanting to create stronger domestic manufacturing.”

Modi has been ratcheting up India’s targets for renewable energy in a bid to lower coal use and bring electricity to the poor. The government set a target in November for as much as 100 gigawatts of solar capacity by 2022, five times the previous goal.

India is the third-largest source of carbon emissions behind the U.S. and China. In December, the government in New Delhi said it could spend at least $100 billion on climate-related projects.

Growing Market

The targets have made India  a fast-growing market for photovoltaics. Demand for solar power in the country this year may triple to more than 3.2 gigawatts, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. The London-based researcher expects as much as 63.6 gigawatts to be installed worldwide.

Solar remains a small part of India’s energy supply, accounting for 1 percent of power generation capacity and less than that for delivered electricity, according to the International Energy Agency. Coal supplies 45 percent of India’s energy and about 60 percent of its electricity.

Under existing energy policies, carbon dioxide emissions in India will jump 34 percent by 2020 and double by 2030, according to the IEA.

The new plant in Mundra, Gujarat, will incorporate all stages of solar manufacturing, from polysilicon to cells and panels. Construction will take about three years and it will create about 20,000 jobs.

“Solar will be a very important part of the country’s energy mix,” Gopalan said. “The cost of solar has become so competitive that it’s our belief the facility we’re building will be able to compete head to head with fossil-powered energy in India.”

SunEdison shares climbed almost 50 percent in 2014, the most among the Bloomberg Intelligence Global Large Solar Energy index of 21 companies.

To contact the reporter on this story: Justin Doom in New York  at jdoom1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Reed Landberg at landberg@bloomberg.net Jim Efstathiou Jr.

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GOP war on renewables sets sights on Colorado energy mandates

VIA http://www.postindependent.com/
Kristen Wyatt
The Associated Press
READ THE BILL

Senate Bill 44: http://bit.ly/1BEQANn

Sen. Ray Scott, R-Grand Junction Leads The Charge Attacking Renewables

DENVER — Colorado Republicans want to roll back the state’s renewable energy mandates, and with greater numbers in the state Legislature this year — along with falling energy prices — party leaders are feeling more confident about their chances.

A group of Republican senators wasted no time proposing changes, introducing a bill on the session’s first day that would lower the amount of renewable energy sources required of Colorado electricity providers.

For larger utilities, which serve most Colorado residents, renewable energy mandates would drop from 30 percent by 2020 to 15 percent by 2020.

For rural electricity co-ops, the renewable energy requirement would drop from 20 percent by 2020 to 15 percent by 2020.

Leading the effort is Sen. Ray Scott, R-Grand Junction. He said Colorado’s renewable-energy standards are too high, and that promises by Democrats in recent years that the stricter standards wouldn’t burden consumers have been broken.

Colorado residents paid an average of 11.74 cents per kilowatt hour in October, the most recent figures available from the U.S. Department of Energy. That was below the national average of 12.58 cents per kilowatt hour, but Republican critics of the standards say renewable energy mandates are still a burden.

“It’s being paid for by the ratepayers, not the utilities,” Scott said. “And, quite frankly, if it’s such a great idea, the companies should build these systems. It shouldn't be done on the backs of the ratepayers.”

The top Republican in the House, Rep. Brian DelGrosso, talked about renewable energy when laying out his party’s agenda for the year.

“Oil, natural gas and coal not only provide clean, affordable and reliable power, but are economic drivers in many communities in Colorado,” DelGrosso said. “We can develop renewable energy and use our current natural resources at the same time.”

The renewable energy standards were established by voters in 2004 and have been strengthened over the years by Democratic governors and legislatures. Two years ago, Democrats upgraded the requirement for rural electricity co-ops, doubling their renewable energy mandate from 10 percent to 20 percent by 2020.

Democrats and environmental activists insist the GOP proposal stands no chance.

“It’s important to diversify Colorado’s energy portfolio,” said Rep. Crisanta Duran, a Denver Democrat and a sponsor of the 2013 renewable energy hike for rural utilities.

Pete Maysmith, executive director of Conservation Colorado, said his group isn’t worried the renewable energy mandates are going down. He called the move to wind and solar energy “incredibly popular” with consumers.

Republicans counter that falling energy prices give them a better argument this year. The price of U.S. crude oil fell to its lowest in nearly six years earlier this week.

“Look at the cost of energy right now,” Scott said. “If we have such an abundance of energy, there’s really absolutely no reason to go to that extreme.”

World Future Energy Summit to Showcase Growing Clean-Energy Market in Middle East Abu Dhabi, UAE

Abu Dhabi, UAE - Jan 10, 2015 (PRN): The growing renewable energy investment opportunity in countries across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is garnering attention by international investors who will be at January's World Future Energy Summit (WFES) to explore project opportunities. Through Masdar, Abu Dhabi's renewable energy company and the host of WFES, the UAE is quickly becoming a leading renewable energy player regionally and globally.

WFES is part of Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week (ADSW), January 17-24, an annual platform that addresses the interconnected challenges of energy and water security, climate risk and sustainable development.

"Through its energy leadership, the UAE has helped galvanize the tremendous rollout of investment into renewables that we are seeing in countries across the Middle East," said Dr. Ahmad Belhoul, CEO of Masdar. "As a platform that brokers partnerships, attracts investments and launches new innovations, WFES is an essential component in driving the region's renewable energy growth." 

With 32,000 attendees expected from 170 countries over four days from January 19-22 in Abu Dhabi, WFES 2015 will bring together the key players - from industry, technology, finance and government - needed to accelerate commercial opportunities in the renewable energy and clean technology sectors.

The WFES agenda will offer delegates unmatched insight about the growing market opportunities in the Middle East and Africa, home to six of the world's 10 fastest growing economies. As the region is attracting significant attention by international investors, several sessions are devoted to understanding the regulatory and institutional frameworks being put into place to encourage investments for renewable energy projects.

MENA countries are planning to install up to 37 gigawatts of renewable energy projects within the next 10 years, and several major initiatives by the UAE are helping to realize this goal.

The UAE is already the largest renewables market in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region, with plans to grow. Abu Dhabi intends to source 7 percent of its domestic power needs from renewables by 2020. Overall, the UAE has more than 120 megawatts of installed renewable energy capacity, the largest project being Masdar's Shams 1, a 100 megawatt concentrated solar power (CSP) facility in Abu Dhabi. Masdar's renewable energy projects extend around the world, with nearly two gigawatt of clean power in operation or under development in Jordan, Oman, the UK, and Spain, among other countries. 

Other major renewables commitments in the MENA region include a US$9 billion solar power project underway in Morocco; US$2.1 billion worth of clean energy investments planned in Jordan, and US$1 billion of investments planned for solar power in Egypt. 

Hosted by Masdar, Abu Dhabi's renewable energy company, WFES also receives support from ADNOC and Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA). In addition to WFES, ADSW will feature the third International Water Summit, the second edition of EcoWASTE, and the seventh Zayed Future Energy Prize Award Ceremony, as well as the Fifth General Assembly of the International Renewable Energy Agency.

Solar sector VC funding Total corporate funding increases 175% to $26.5B

Origionally posted on http://www.onlinetes.com/
Manufacturing Group | January 10, 2015

Total corporate funding increases 175% to $26.5B in the solar sector, VC funding doubles, strong public market, debt financing, and IPO activity.

Mercom Capital Group LLC  officials released a report on funding and merger and acquisition (M&A) activity for the solar sector in 2014. Total corporate funding into the solar sector encompassing venture capital/private equity (VC), debt and public market financing increased 175% in 2014 with $26.5 billion, compared to $9.6 billion in 2013. 

Global VC investments  more than doubled to $1.3 billion in 85 deals in 2014, compared to $612 million in 98 deals in 2013.

“The big story coming out of 2014 was the revival of capital markets - solar companies were able to access funding through multiple avenues like VC, public markets, IPOs and debt in record numbers, while the quest for lower cost of capital continued with Yieldcos and securitization deals. The solar sector has come a long way from being perceived  as a speculative high risk investment to attracting investors based on low risk attractive dividend yields,” said Raj Prabhu, CEO of Mercom Capital Group.

Solar downstream companies saw the largest amount of VC funding in 2014 with $1.1 billion in 44 deals, accounting for 85% of venture funding. Investments in PV technology companies reached $75 million in 12 deals and Balance of Systems (BoS) companies were close behind with $73 million in seven deals. Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) companies came in at $59 million in three deals, followed by thin film companies with $52 million in nine deals.

The top 5 VC funded companies in 2014 were:

• Sunnova Energy, a provider of residential solar service to homeowners through its network of local installation partners offering leases and PPAs, which raised a total of $505 million in three separate deals
• Sunrun, a provider of residential solar-power systems and third party finance, raising $150 million
• Renewable Energy Trust Capital, a finance platform established to acquire and own solar projects and provide a single equity capital source, brought in $125 million
• Sungevity, a provider of residential solar installations and third party finance, raised $72.5 million
• GlassPoint Solar, a provider of solar steam generators to the oil and gas industry for applications such as Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR), raised $53 million

A total of 119 VC investors were active in 2014, with 12 investors participating in more than one round in 2014 including: Acero Capital, Acumen Fund, DBL Investors, E.ON, Ecosystem Integrity Fund, Novus Energy Partners, Omidyar Network, SolarCity, Sustainable Development Technology Canada, Trident Capital, Vision Ridge Partners, and Vulcan Capital.

Public market financing increased considerably to $5.2 billion in 52 deals in 2014, up from just $2.8 million in 39 deals in 2013. In 2014 seven IPOs brought in more than $2 billion combined including, Vivint Solar, Scatec Solar, Thai Solar Energy and Sky Solar. Yieldcos accounted for three of the IPOs for $1.5 billion going to Abengoa Yield, Terraform Power, and NextEnergy Solar Fund.

 

Announced debt financing in 2014 totaled almost $20 billion in 58 deals, compared to $6.2 billion in 38 deals in 2013. China accounted for $15.8 billion of the debt activity. 

Large-scale project funding announced in 2014 totaled $14.2 billion in 144 deals. The largest project funding deal announced in 2014 was the $942 million loan raised by China WindPower Group for a portfolio of projects totaling 800 MW. Top investors in large-scale projects were Mizuho Bank with 12 projects and Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ with 10 projects.

Residential and commercial funds showed strong growth in 2014 with 34 announced funds totaling $4 billion. SolarCity, SunPower, Vivint Solar, SunEdison, and Syncarpha Capital were top fundraisers in 2014.

Corporate M&A activity in solar totaled $4 billion in a record 116 transactions compared to $12.7 billion in 81 transactions in 2013. Consolidation activity continued among solar downstream companies with 57 transactions followed by manufacturers and equipment companies with 35 transactions. In a bid to vertically integrate, SolarCity made the most acquisitions in the last 5 years with 7, followed by First Solar and SunPower with 6 apiece. The largest M&A transaction in 2014 was the $1.2 billion acquisition of Hanwha Q CELLS Investment by Hanwha SolarOne, followed by Bluestar Elkem’s acquisition of REC Solar for  approximately $637 million. Danfoss acquired a 20% stake in SMA Solar Technology for $416 million; SolarCity acquired Silevo for $350 million, and Solargise acquired a majority stake in Grapp Energies for $200 million.

Large-scale solar project acquisitions totaled $3.2 billion in 2014, compared to $1.7 billion in 2013. Transaction activity was up 46% year-over-year, with 163 deals in 2014. A total of 6.4GW of large-scale solar projects were acquired in 2014. Good solar projects with solid returns continue to be in heavy demand and are being acquired at a record pace. Competition to acquire quality projects intensified with the emergence of Yieldcos.

The fourth quarter of 2014 was an active quarter for large-scale project development around the globe. Mercom tracked 241 project announcements totaling almost 9.5GW for the quarter and 736 project announcements totaling 34.4GW for 2014 in various stages of development globally.

Source: Mercom Capital

store.mercom.mercomcapital.com/product/2014-q4-solar-funding-report/

ACWA wins $2bn contract for Morocco solar plant

by Utilities ME Staff on Jan 10, 2015 
Originally published in 

A parabolic trough CSP plant 

A consortium led by Saudi Arabia's ACWA Power International has won a EUR 1.7bn ($2bn) contract to build two concentrated solar power (CSP) plants in Morocco.

The plants totalling 350 megawatts (MW) are the second phase Ouarzazate project in the southern Moroccan city of the same name, the Reuters news agency said quoting a statement by the Moroccan solar energy agency (Masen).

ACWA Power is already building a 160 MW plant in the first stage of the project.

The winning consortium, which includes Spain's Sener, offered 1.36 dirhams ($0.15) per kilowatt (KWh) for the first 200 MW plant with parabolic mirror technology, while it priced the plant with solar power tower technology at 1.42 dirhams per KWh.

Consortiums led by Spain's Abengoa, GDF's International Power and ACWA Power were pre-selected for the 200 MW (Noor II) tender.

The three groups were also pre-qualified for the 150 MW (Noor III) tender, along with another consortium led by Electricite de France (EDF).

Sources told Reuters that consortiums led by ACWA and Abengoa have bid the lowest to build the two plants.

If Masen decides to combine the bids for the two plants, the ACWA bids overall would beat Abengoa's, the sources added.

The plants, which are scheduled to start generating power in 2017, are part of a government plan to produce 2 gigawatts (GW) of solar power by 2020, equivalent to about 38% of Morocco's current installed power generation capacity.

To finance the plants, Morocco has secured loans of $519mn from the World Bank, $654mn euros from German state-owned bank KfW and the rest from the African Development Bank (AfDB), the European Commission and European Investment Bank (EIB).

Coupled with a multi-billion dollar wind energy development scheme, the solar development plan should reduce Morocco's annual imports of fossil fuels by 2.5 million tonnes of oil equivalent and prevent emissions of 9 million tonnes of carbon dioxide.

Masen is expected to announce the two next solar plants, which would be located in Midelt (central) and Tata (south) towns with an estimated 500 MW each.

Utilities Duke And Dominion Fight But Lose As Solar Owners Win Victory In North Carolina

January 10th, 2015 by Roy L Hales 
Originally Published on the ECOreport 

There appears to have been a victory for solar owners in North Carolina. In what is becoming an all too familiar theme, Duke Energy and Dominion North Carolina Power sought to lower the evaluation formula (the avoided cost rate) for solar energy being fed to the grid. Though the State Utilities Commission  agreed that there may be costs that could be added to “a utility’s avoided cost calculations,” they pointed out that there are also benefits which the utilities failed to consider. In fact (p 61), “a comprehensive evaluation of solar integration costs in North Carolina has not been undertaken.” The utilities have to file their proposed avoided cost rate in March.

“The Commission recognized that the natural gas combustion turbine costs that the utilities file in their long term integrated resource plans is different from what they use for calculating avoided costs,”said Ivan Urlaub, Executive Director of the NC Sustainable Energy Association (NCSEA) and founder and Board member of the NC Clean Energy Business Alliance.“The Commission is saying these two need to be consistent. We need more transparency on how the utilities are calculating their avoided costs.”

He added, “We filed a lot of comments and expert witness testimony quantifying the additional values of solar in this proceeding. They weren’t explicitly recognized in the order that the Commission issued on New Year’s Eve, but that does not mean they won’t be recognized in the future.”

Witnesses testified that solar energy provided North Carolina with:

• (p 15) cost effective, clean electricity generation, even if those resources are not built by the utility companies.
• (p 25) energy that is frequently below the wholesale power market price
• (p 8) a reduction in the amount of fuel the utility otherwise would need to purchase for power plants.

Utilities argued that (p 27) any estimate of solar’s value “might be speculative.” They (p 34) “do not need capacity until 2016 or 2017.”

The Commission disagreed. Up until this point, solar had spread (p 56) “without adverse impacts to utility ratepayers. There is no evidence that the current framework fails to comply with the requirements of Section 210 of PURPA or otherwise disadvantages QFs. Absent such evidence, the Commission determines that the conflicting evidence presented in this docket justifies its continuation going forward.”

Solar owners will continue to be paid the avoided cost rate for 15 years. The utilities wanted to reduce this to 10, which would have made the financing significantly more expensive.

The utilities also tried to reduce the size limit for projects from 5 megawatts to 100 kilowatts (a tenth of a megawatt).

“That really would have shut down utility scale development. We’re seeing a lot of data and analysis suggesting that the economy is better off with this expansion of clean energy in the state. A lot of people were shocked by the proposals put forward by the utilities. They were so different from what is in place. The economy and the customers are really the winners in this,” said Urlaub.

North Carolina is one of America’s fastest growing markets for clean energy solutions. NCSEA records show there were 18,404 full-time employees in this sector during 2013.

Images Above, in descending order:

• Fuquay rooftop solar, New Bern, NC, ESA Renewables
• Solar panels in North Carolina, Carolina Solar Energy
• Ray Family Farm, Louisburg, NC, Southern Energy Management

Goldman Sachs Declares Elon Musk Is A Genius And Solar Energy Will Dominate Electrical Markets

VIA businessinsider.com
By: ROB WILE

REUTERS/Danny Moloshok

Goldman Sachs has set an estimated date for when they believe residential solar power becomes competitive with existing electric across the U.S.

It's relatively soon.

Here's the timeline from Cleantech analysts Brian Lee and Thomas Daniels, included in Goldman's latest note on Tesla:

• First, assuming the Gigafactory — the giant manufacturing facility that will soon begin pumping out lithium ion batteries to be used in both Tesla vehicles and renewable energy storage units — reaches its potential, the cost of said batteries should drop to $125/KWh by 2020, from a current price of more than $200/KWh, and dropping 3% each year thereafter.
• The cost of solar panels continues to fall. Goldman says we can expect an average reduction of 3% annually here as well. That is extremely ambitious — cost reductions have stalled a bit of late — but it does jibe with this famous chart.

• Finally, if electricity prices continue to climb in-line with historical increases — something that assumes a steadier economic recovery — prices for existing forms of electricity will increase 3% annually

"This puts LCOE at $0.20 by 2033 which would be at parity with the US grid price," Goldman says.

And this could happen even sooner in New York, California, and Hawaii, where electricity is more expensive and especially in places like Hawaii where costs are $0.36 per KWh, the note.

What's more, Goldman says this will all go down even without credits:

While the ITC runs only through 2016, our Clean Energy team believes the number of households hitting grid parity will continue to grow as the cost of the systems comes down...SolarCity has seen a 40% decline in the per watt cost of PV panels since the second quarter of 2013 driven by improved scale which is expected to continue. This has been true for Tesla’s battery costs as well, which have declined from of $500/KWh in 2008 to $250/KWh for the Model S to potentially $125/KWh at the gigafactory. As a result we should note that the quantitative grid parity and return calculations we show above are arrived at without any Federal or state credits.

They go on to invoke the two scariest words in the world for utilities: grid defection (people leaving the grid). And they lay out three reasons why, though nothing is imminent, we are heading in that direction. 

Ultimately the holy grail of solar is to move to a situation where the customer is no longer tied to the grid at all. This may be far off, aside from entailing a much more expensive solar/battery system, this is also potentially out of people’s comfort zone entailing a 100% reliance on a new system for their electricity needs. That said, decreased reliability from an aging distribution infrastructure, a broadening desire to reduce the carbon footprint, and perhaps most importantly, the reduction of solar panel and battery costs could also work together to make grid independence a reality for many customers one day.

They conclude: "As this is a very high-level exercise, we do not quantify the addressable market in this report, but to us the conclusion is very clear – the potential for this application could be very large."

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-on-solar-and-elon-musk-2014-3#ixzz3ORZmLk00
NOW WATCH – ELON MUSK: Here's How We Can Fix Mars And Colonize It

Toyota releases 5,600 fuel cell related patents available for use royalty-free to boost hydrogen economy.

By Emma Hutchings
VIA www.psfk.com

CES 2015: Toyota Pushes For A Hydrogen Future

The automaker is making over 5,600 fuel cell related patents available for use royalty-free.

Toyota  has announced at the 2015 Consumer Electronics Show that it is making thousands of hydrogen fuel cell patents available royalty-free. These patents include the industry leading fuel cell technology used in the new Toyota Mirai.

Approximately 5,680 fuel cell related patents are held globally, with around 1,970 related to fuel cell stacks, 290 associated with high-pressure hydrogen tanks, 3,350 related to fuel cell system software control, and 70 patents about hydrogen production and supply.

This initiative has a number of positive implications, such as sparking the development and introduction of innovative fuel cell technologies around the world. It is the first time that Toyota has made its patents available free of charge and reflects the company’s support for developing a hydrogen-based society.

The hydrogen fuel cell patents will be made available to automakers who will produce and sell fuel cell vehicles, along with fuel cell parts suppliers and energy companies who establish and operate fueling stations. Companies working to develop and introduce fuel cell busses and industrial equipment are also covered. Parts suppliers and companies looking to adapt fuel cell technology outside of the transportation sector can also submit requests, which will be evaluated on a case by case basis.

Companies interested in Toyota’s fuel cell-related patents will negotiate individual contracts with the company. Bob Carter, Senior Vice President of Automotive Operations at Toyota Motor Sales, USA Inc., said:

“At Toyota, we believe that when good ideas are shared, great things can happen. The first generation hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, launched between 2015 and 2020, will be critical, requiring a concerted effort and unconventional collaboration between automakers, government regulators, academia and energy providers. By eliminating traditional corporate boundaries, we can speed the development of new technologies and move into the future of mobility more quickly, effectively and economically.”

You can watch theoretical physicist and futurist Dr. Michio Kaku discuss a hydrogen future and see Toyota’s announcement at CES 2015 in the video below:

Is it feasible for California to get to 50% renewable power in 15 years?

“We are ready, but we have to get our boots on and navigate some tough territory.”

By Herman K. Trabish

VIA www.utilitydive.com

California Gov. Jerry Brown (D) got 2015 off to a rousing start with his call to raise renewables to 50% of his state’s electricity generation by 2030.

Can his state's utilities make it happen?

“The governor has presented a policy for California to be a leader in carbon reduction and this is the focus of his broad plan,” a Southern California Edison (SCE)  spokesperson wrote to Utility Dive.

In addition to raising the renewables mandate, Brown’s inaugural address proposal  included increasing building energy efficiency by 50% and halving the state’s use of petroleum.

“We look forward to working with the administration to develop and implement this group of measures,” the SCE statement said. “Combinations of increased renewable energy resources, energy efficiency, expansion of the use of electric vehicles, energy storage and other technologies and strategies will be needed to make the desired level of carbon reductions .”

Hawaii’s regulators are working with the HECO utilities on a 67% renewables by 2030 mandate. But Hawaii’s smaller size, population and its geographic isolation make meeting the goal significantly easier than in California. Noother state’s mandate  is higher than 30%.

Credit: Database of State Incentives for Renewables and Efficiency 

 

No technical barriers

There are no technical barriers to using 50% renewables on California’s grid, according to Laura Wisland’s reading of 'Investigating a Higher Renewables Portfolio Standard [RPS] in California ,' a study by Energy plus Environmental Economics (E3). Wisland is an Energy Analyst at the Union of Concerned Scientists. 

Cost barriers caused by over-generation of solar could, however, become an issue, the E3 research found. The key to cost is in the resource mix and that will be decided by state energy agency decision makers.

“We have known for some time that the 33% RPS was only a floor and not a ceiling and we have been thinking about 40% and 50% penetration rates,”California Independent System Operator (ISO)  Senior Public Information Officer Steven Greenlee. It will take increased collaboration and coordination with the state’s energy agencies, he added, “but we are prepared to move forward and make this a reality.”

Resource mix specifics will be up to the California Energy Commission (CEC) and the people involved in the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) long term procurement plan  process, Greenlee explained. The ISO then determines what infrastructure is needed to support the new resources.

A source close to the CEC said it is studying the Governor’s proposal and will collaborate with stakeholders to find the best ways to achieve the Governor’s “ambitious” reductions. The CPUC could not be reached.

Credit: Center for Energy Efficiency and Renewables Technology 

The fuel mix: Balance matters

“The most important part of Governor Brown’s proposal is that renewables increasingly will be seen as a means and low carbon electricity will be the end, rather than renewables being seen as an end,” explained Center for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Technologies (CEERT)  Executive Director V. John White. 

CEERT has studied California energy policy for over two decades and worked on the existing renewables mandate’s implementation. Most recently, the think tank has influenced Sacramento thinking through the California 2030 Low Carbon Grid Study , an independent analysis with input from NREL and others that CEERT has helped organize, staff, and fund.

”Until now, we have been buying renewables to comply with the RPS ,” White said. “We didn’t think about the fit but almost exclusively about the cost. But there could be 50% renewables with no significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions [GHGs] if we have to build a bunch of gas plants to balance the load.”

Because Brown’s plan is part of a strategy to meet 2030 and 2050 GHG reduction goals , it is likely to be implemented in a more integrated way, White explained. “From economic analyses of deep penetrations of renewables, we see the balance of the portfolio matters, both technologically and geographically.”

In addition to continued growth in utility scale and distributed photovoltaic solar with battery storage, White foresees a continued wide mix of new renewables capacity . It will include wind, biomass, concentrating solar power projects with storage and grid-scale pumped hydro storage.

Credit: Center for Energy Efficiency and Renewables Technology 

 

Central solar versus distributed solar

The mix of distributed solar and central solar in 2030’s 50% mix depends on how bold the decision makers at the CPUC and CEC choose to be, said Clean Power Finance Government Affairs VP James Tong .

“If they want the easy way out, they will use 20th century techniques and pick more centralized generation," he told Utility Dive. "If they want to be bolder, distributed energy resources (DERs), including distributed solar, will have a stronger place in the mix.”

Making that choice will be harder because “the evaluation criteria of the 20th century grid are outdated and understate both the value of DERs and the cost of centralized renewables,” Tong said. “DER technology is ready to take on the work of a 21st century grid but we haven’t created the regulatory construct.”

An example is the lack of time of use (TOU) pricing, Tong explained. “Without TOU pricing, the value of smart devices is diminished so they are underutilized and everything about the distributed system is overpriced and that causes decision makers to think they need more 20th century centralized infrastructure.”

Credit: CalWEA’s Investigating the Investigation of a Higher Renewables Portfolio Standard in California:

Challenges

Implementing this policy will take time and require innovation, institutional changes, market design changes, rate design changes, and procurement changes, White concurred, but there are no economic or technical barriers to achieving 50% renewables.

“There will be healthy competition between the renewables and that is good for a state as big as California that is blessed with so many renewable resources,” said  California Solar Energy Industries Association Executive Director Bernadette Del Chiaro. “But 50% is a big number and allows room for everybody.”

Rooftop solar  now stands shoulder to shoulder with large scale renewables and will play an ever bigger role in getting to 50%, Del Chiaro said. “There are 15 years to get in place the policies and the investments needed to bring technologies like storage and smart inverters to scale. We have to start today and that is happening. There are proceedings open at the CPUC on how to do these things.”

“We are thrilled for two reasons,” said California Wind Energy Association (CalWEA)  President Nancy Rader of the Brown proposal. “One is because we have a number and a date and that makes it easier for people who make investment decisions. The other is because administration officials have said we should be more focused on emissions than on renewables but the Governor put out a very specific renewables target.”

Based on CEERT’s study and CalWEA’s deconstruction of the E3 study , Rader believes the 50% goal is achievable and that California will require 10 gigawatts of new wind to meet the policy. “The utilities imposed the assumption on E3 that they would procure mostly solar,” Rader explained. “But it is clear we need large quantities of wind to balance solar’s narrow midday output and, especially with storage, higher cost.”

Rader’s biggest concern is that a draft Desert Renewable Energy Conservation Plan (DRECP) study  too severely limits the areas where that much wind can be developed.

The DRECP does provide for adequate renewables development, Wisland recently wrote . If there are shortfalls in California wind development, White said, wind can be imported cost-effectively from Wyoming and New Mexico. Rader argues that would transfer part of the economic benefit of the new renewables mandate out of California.

“We are at the base camp for the next climb up the mountain and Governor Brown has lifted our eyes to the higher horizon and said, ‘We can go there. Let’s go,’” White said. “We are ready but we have to get our boots on and navigate some tough territory.”

Top Image Credit: Fotolia